Joel Sherman's Hardball

Joel Sherman's Hardball

Be prepared for a quiet trade deadline

July 28, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

A friend in the business once cautioned me to avoid writing what is not going to happen. He did this for two reasons: 1) He pointed out that no one goes into a bar and says, “Wow, did you hear who the Mets are not getting?” 2) He noted you can only look like a fool after you write the Yankees aren’t getting someone and they turn around and get that player.
	 
I have lived by that advice as much as possible during my career. But I will take a momentary detour here. When I write these words it is 2:45 p.m. on Wednesday. That means a lot can happen between now and the non-waiver trade deadline on Saturday at 4 p.m., and nothing pushes deals to happen like an actual deadline.
	 
But having been on the phone, e-mail and text message with dozens of baseball people the past few days, I have received one version or another of not much is going on or to expect nothing more than small deals. One of the most optimistic reports I got yesterday came from an NL assistant GM who said to me, “Well at least today the prices moved from obscene to ridiculous.”
	 
An AL executive who I believe does among the best jobs of staying atop the movement offered this appraisal via e-mail this afternoon: “My calls today leave me with the impression that this will be a very quiet deadline. (Jayson) Werth, (Prince) Fielder, (Corey) Hart, (Adam) Dunn, (Josh) Willingham, Roy (Oswalt), et al could very well stay put.”
	 
Again, I want to caution that there is a long time to the deadline and that I hate that I am even writing about players NOT getting traded. But the tone and sentiment from club officials is not optimistic. There are a few reasons:
	 
1) Keep in mind that two very good starters, Cliff Lee and Dan Haren, already have been traded. 2) Teams are telling each other they have little to no money to spend. 3) Few teams are sitting in such financial straits that they feel that they must unload a contract simply to get rid of the money.
	 
4) Teams are valuing (over-valuing?) prospects like never before. As one AL GM said, “When the Yanks are giving you a long list of who they won’t trade that means the whole sport is protecting prospects.” 5) There is a strong belief that a boatload of players will get through waivers and be available in August, so many teams do not even consider Saturday a deadline. 6) Potential buyers such as the Mets, Angels and Rockies have played so badly of late and fallen far enough back in their division races that plans to do more than they have at this point could be on hold. The Tigers are dealing with enough significant injuries that they might see no way that a trade could help enough. Essentially the number of buyers is dwindling.
	 
However, keep in mind that trending the right way could motivate some buying. For example, a week ago, the Phillies were putting together contingencies as both buyers and sellers depending on where they were in the day or two before the deadline. But with six straight wins, the Phillies are now “the most active team out there,” according to an NL scout.
	 
Again, here are more words of caution: No one saw the Yanks coming on Lee and they had a deal in principle concluded with the Mariners before Seattle veered and did a trade with Texas, instead. And with all the rumors about Haren, none tied him to the Angels until the deal was actually complete. So we will probably encounter some surprises in the next few days. But on a Wednesday afternoon the sound of pessimism and silence were most common around the majors.
	 
***
	 
The A’s began Wednesday tied with the Angels for second place in the AL West, 8 1-2 games behind the Rangers. They have no illusions of making the playoffs. But, nevertheless, they have told inquiring teams that they are all but certain not to make any deals before Saturday’s deadline.
	 
Many clubs were interested in Oakland set-up men Michael Wuertz and lefty Craig Breslow. But the A’s can control both for at least two more years at reasonable dollars and want to keep what they perceive as a strong pitching unit together to make a more legitimate run next season. The A’s think that with their all 26-or-younger rotation of Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro and Dallas Braden plus closer Andrew Bailey will give them a chance to contend next year.
	 
Oakland’s hope now is to let this group play together and gain some momentum the rest of the season, bring up its best two hitting prospects – Chris Carter and Michael Taylor – after Sept. 1 and then splurge on one power bat in the offseason, someone like Adam Dunn. The A’s feel they will be able to afford to make a significant power acquisition because with Eric Chavez coming off the books, the current group projects to just under $0 million in total payroll.
	 
***
	 
The Blue Jays continue to tell interested teams that they do not feel they must trade Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor or John Buck.
	 
The Blue Jays insist they are willing to offer arbitration to all four with Downs headed toward being a Type-A free agent and the other three all projected to be Type-Bs, meaning they could secure a bunch of either first and/or second-round picks for them if they reject arbitration and leave. There is general suspicion around the majors that is just a ploy by Toronto not to look desperate and to maximize the value of these players, especially when it comes to Downs.
	 
The feeling around the sport is that perhaps no team would be willing to give up a first-round pick for a lefty set-up man if Downs rejected arbitration and that the Jays don’t want to risk him accepting and coming back as a well-paid set-up man on a team not expecting to contend.
	 
However, Blue Jays officials insist they are not concerned about offering arbitration to Downs. If he accepts, they figure, his comparables would put him on a one-year, non-guaranteed contract for between what Darren Oliver makes ($3.5 million) to what Jeremy Affeldt makes ($4.5 million), and those officials say they are comfortable bringing Downs back in that scenario because the 34-year-old lefty stays in great shape, is considered a strong clubhouse asset and has been among the more consistent relievers in the majors the past few years. The Jays feel they can either keep him for next year to help support a young rotation or trade him.
	 
Also, Toronto officials note that Atlanta was willing to surrender its first-round pick to sign Type-A lefty Billy Wagner to just a one-year contract and Baltimore was willing to surrender a first-round pick to sign Type-A lefty Mike Gonzalez. Both were closers, but the Jays think the interest that has been shown on Downs means some team might give him a two- or three-year deal and surrender a first-round pick in the offseason.
	 
Twelve teams have called on Downs, including the Yankees.

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Would Mets trade Perez, Castillo to Cubs for available Zambrano?

July 28, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

On his Twitter account yesterday, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Cubs have let teams know they are willing to move Carlos Zambrano. That makes sense since Chicago would definitely want to remove an underperforming, overpaid malcontent. But the reasons that the Cubs want so badly to get rid of Zambrano is why he is such a difficult player to move.
	 
Now this is pure speculation by me – in other words, this is not something anyone has told me is possible. But if you were the Mets would you trade Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo for Zambrano? Here is my thought on this: The Mets want to get Perez and Castillo out of their sight and the Cubs want to get Zambrano out of their sight. It is almost a perfect salary match for 2011: Zambrano is due $17.875 million and Castillo and Perez combine to make $18 million.
	 
The problem is Zambrano’s $18 million option for 2012. How much of that would the Cubs have to assume to make the deal appealing enough for the Mets to bite? Half? Three-quarters?
	 
At this point, the Mets have to know for sure that Perez can never pitch successfully for them. It is possible that Zambrano might. You have to worry about the behavior. But say the Mets could get Zambrano for $6 million in 2012, would that make it worthwhile to put his declining stuff and troubling personality into the clubhouse? And would saving at least that $6 million be worth it for the Cubs to get Zambrano and his too often out-of-control behavior out the door?
	 
The Cubs did a deal that had many of these elements with the Mariners last offseason. The Cubs wanted the behavior-challenged Milton Bradley off their roster and Seattle wanted the Oliver Perez-esque waste of money, Carlos Silva, off its roster. The salaries did not match perfectly, so Seattle agreed to pay $9 million between this year and next year of Silva’s contract.
	 
***
	 
The Cardinals were very encouraged by Kyle Lohse’s rehab start Monday, his first outing since undergoing surgery to his forearm. However, the Cardinals are still looking for a starting pitcher and remain in contact with the Astros about Roy Oswalt. Why?
	 
1) They imagine that a rotation fronted by Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Oswalt and Jaime Garcia not only goes a long way to sewing up the NL Central, but makes them stronger in short playoff series. 2) Unlike Lohse, the Cardinals do not believe they will get Brad Penny back this season. He continues to complain of discomfort in his right shoulder, though the Cardinals have not found a specific reason through various tests for the pain. 3) They want to guard themselves against a setback with Lohse. 4) Garcia missed most of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and so St. Louis does have concern has worry about how the rookie lefty will hold up over the full season. 5) Right now the Nos. 4-5 starters are Jeff Suppan and Blake Hawksworth, and that concerns the Cardinals about their depth, especially if Lohse doesn’t return, Garcia slows down or there is another problem. …
	 
Friday is the sixth anniversary of the ill-fated day when the Mets traded Scott Kazmir to the Rays for Victor Zambrano. What is interesting six years later is that Kazmir might be the worst starter in the majors this year at 7-9 with a 6.92 ERA and now on the DL with shoulder fatigue.
	 
Meanwhile, the Mets did make another deal that same day with Pittsburgh for Kris Benson. Two of the players the Mets gave up – Jose Bautista and Ty Wigginton – were actually American League All-Stars this year. …
	 
Arizona’s Chad Qualls not only has the worst ERA in the majors among pitchers who have worked in 40 games this year, but at 8.51 that is first and second place feels a few miles away: Tampa’s Randy Choate at 6.20 ERA.
	 
But an NL scout said he says the veteran righty as a worthwhile gamble, especially since Arizona will probably not look for much in return if a team is willing to eat the $1.6 million Qualls is due the rest of the year.
	 
“This guy is the bad luck champion of 2010 to me,” the scout said. “I am telling you his fastball is the same velocity and so is his slider. He has been successful with this stuff. But he needs to find a pitching coach who will get him into a good spot on the rubber to get that 93 mph sinker working best again. And he needs to get out of Arizona. It is so negative there for him because he has pitched poorly and the team has played terribly.”

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Who's buying, who's selling: Updating MLB's trade market

July 27, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

Get ready for baseball’s version of Four Corners. Many teams are planning on using as much time as possible between now and the Saturday 4 p.m. deadline to determine if they are contenders or not... Read on

Get ready for baseball’s version of Four Corners.
	 
Many teams are planning on using as much time as possible between now and the Saturday 4 p.m. deadline to determine if they are contenders or not before they decide to give up prospects and/or add payroll at a time when just about every team is claiming they have little to no money to spend.
	 
As an example, the Phillies’ just-concluded four-game sweep of the Rockies has significantly altered both teams’ focus for the deadline.
	 
The most common refrain you heard about the Phillies a week ago was that they were all over the place, making plans to trade Jayson Werth for prospects with their eyes on the future and making plans to trade Werth as a vehicle to get a starter to help for a playoff push.
	 
But after losing four in a row, the Phillies have rebounded to now win five straight, notably with the sweep of Colorado. They are 4 1/2 out in the NL East and just 2 1/2 back in the wild card. And one AL official told me this today: “It is not a slam dunk they trade Werth. I know that has been the perception, but I am not sure it is the reality. I have talked to their people and they sound like they are going to keep him and go for this thing with him.”
	 
Meanwhile, a week ago, the Rockies had feelers out everywhere looking for a bat (they talked Adam Dunn, but didn’t like his poor defense), perhaps a starter (though Dan Haren was the only available arm they really liked) and definitely a reliever (they were regularly in touch with Toronto about Kevin Gregg). But now they are in the midst of their longest losing streak of the season and have fallen a season-high eight games out of first, while dropping to 4 1/2 games out in the wild card. They see so many problem spots on their offense – Todd Helton, Dexter Fowler, Brad Hawpe – that they not only are not in buy mode, but are considering selling.
	 
One way or the other, Colorado wants to put Jhoulys Chacin back into the rotation and are quietly shopping Aaron Cook and telling teams they would either eat some dollars or take back a contract. Cook, though, is having his worst season since becoming a full-time starter in 2004 at 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA. Also, he is owed about $3 million on his $9 million contract for this season, $9.5 million next year and there is a mutual option in 2012 for $11 million or $500,000 buyout. However, if he is traded his base salary increases by $1 million in each season.
	 
Colorado does get its most important player, Troy Tulowitzki (wrist), off the disabled list tonight and will assess with its shortstop back where it is are over the next few days before making a clear buy or sell decision.
	 
***
	 
The one player that there is agreement will definitely be traded before the deadline is the Cubs’ Ted Lilly. The Yanks’ interest is miniscule. The lefty pitched poorly against the Dodgers (seven runs in 3 2/3 innings) on July 9. However, Dodgers officials are telling team that beleaguered owner Frank McCourt wants to try to get some positive press and will authorize a small payroll bump to obtain a pitcher. And Joe Torre greatly admired Lilly’s tenacity when they were together with the Yankees, and therefore L.A. is likely to have interest in the lefty. Lilly is 3-8 with a 3.88 ERA, and has about $4 million still owed him this year. …
	 
The Giants are working on outfielder Jose Guillen with Kansas City sending back some money on the $4 million-ish he is owed the rest of the year. …
	 
Tampa Bay likes Adam Dunn’s bat, but Dunn has said he does not want to be a DH and the Rays had such a miserable experience with Pat Burrell at DH against his desires that they are not after Dunn.

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Joba loses setup role, but Yankees won't send him to minors

July 27, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

Joba Chamberlain has lost his exclusive eighth-inning job, but is in no jeopardy of being sent to the minors, sources told The Post.Joe Girardi refused to say on Monday night that Chamberlain had... Read on

Joba Chamberlain has lost his exclusive eighth-inning job, but is in no jeopardy of being sent to the minors, sources told The Post.
	 
Joe Girardi refused to say on Monday night that Chamberlain had lost his job, but a club official explained: “The first thing we felt we had to do was take him out of the eighth inning.”
	 
That began last night when David Robertson and Boone Logan protected a one-run lead in the eighth in what became a 3-2 victory over the Indians. Robertson replaced Javier Vazquez with a runner on first and no outs and induced a double play. Logan then came in to strike out lefty Shin-Soo Choo.
	 
It is possible Chamberlain will be used as part of a mix in the eighth inning. But no longer does he have sole responsibility for the inning when he is available.
	 
“We would like for him to pitch at the level he is capable of pitching at,’’ Girardi said prior to tonight’s game against the Indians.
	 
What is not possible, at least for now, is sending Chamberlain to the minors for two major reasons: 1) The Yanks feel it would be a terrible message to bust somebody from main set-up man all the way to Scranton in one move, so they will try to fix him outside the eighth inning and 2) They do not believe Chamberlain is failing because of an attitude problem. Yankee officials actually consider Chamberlain a hard worker. In other words they are not looking at this how they viewed a situation with Melky Cabrera in 2008. That season the Yanks thought Cabrera had become lazy and that was a factor in his struggles, so they did demote him in mid-August to Triple-A.
	 
Still, Chamberlain’s struggles have the Yanks checking out available eighth-inning options. They called the Royals last week about Joakim Soria and were told the closer was not available. They are interested in Toronto’s Scott Downs, but an executive from another AL team described the Blue Jays’ demands for the lefty as “not something I can imagine anyone paying for a set-up man.”
	 
In fact, right now, the price is being described by multiple executives as too high for all the main available relievers such as Washington’s Matt Capps, and Pittsburgh’s Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan. The Mets and Red Sox are among many teams looking for relief help.
	 
The Yanks are preparing as if they might have to solve the problem internally. That begins with trying to remedy the inconsistency of Chamberlain and hoping Damaso Marte heals well from his shoulder problems. They also imagine that, at some point, Phil Hughes could go into the pen to keep him under his innings cap while bolstering the relief crew. The Yanks also are willing to consider if a minor league starter could potentially help down the stretch and in the playoffs, with hard-throwing Ivan Nova a possibility.
	 
The Diamondbacks did request Chamberlain last week as part of a package for Dan Haren. However, the Yanks were only willing to incorporate Haren’s salary over the next few years if a trade was essentially a salary dump and the Yanks had to only give up middling prospects.

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3UP: Mets Status, Haren, Joba

July 26, 2010 , ι By Joel Sherman

1. Late last week I was speaking to an official from an AL team and casually asked what he thought about the Mets. This is what he said, “They are off on Monday. I would keep an eye on Monday.” The executive went on to explain that it is the Mets’ tendency to have big-picture meetings on off-days, and the way their road trip was going – and the way it would continue to go – the executive figured that the meeting could have real substance. And not just because the trade deadline would be less than a week away.

The thought was that the Mets are desperate not to have Citi Field empty in August and September. Therefore, the first job would be to change the subject from the West Coast disaster to the future. That GM Omar Minaya would not say that coaches were safe very well could be a signal that the sacrifice to the angry fans will be a coach or two, with hitting coach Howard Johnson the most likely to be jettisoned.

The idea – the Mets would hope – would be to spin the story forward: Hey, look at the names and pedigree of our hitters. We feel we have to find a better way to reach them and, boom, here it is. The way that would most assure that the fans start buzzing about the present/future rather than the past is if the Mets put current Rookie League manager Wally Backman on the coaching staff.

That also would be yet another shot over the bow to Jerry Manuel, since Backman is considered a prime candidate to replace Manuel for next season. So is Bob Melvin, who also could conceivably be put onto the coaching staff.

Will it go down this way, I do not know. But I do expect that something dramatic will occur today. The Mets will definitely feel compelled to change the subject.

2. My Sunday Hardball
	 columnwas mainly about why I imagined that Dan Haren would not end up a Yankee, specifically because it complicated the Yankees’ future payroll, specifically because they are targeting Cliff Lee in the offseason. But buried in that column was that I had heard that the Diamondbacks were pushing very hard to trade Haren because of their own payroll troubles; notably that they had to stay at $60 million or lower for next season.

That left Arizona in a perfect storm: Feeling they had to trade their most expensive player at a time when Haren was having his worst season since becoming a full-time starter in 2005. Haren’s statistical profile this year is very much like that of Javier Vazquez’s, but he is doing it in the AL while Haren is in the NL and there is a lot of whispering that he might be hurt.

I think you have to look at what they received in return from the Angels – Joe Saunders and three prospects – through that prism. They traded a valuable piece at the worst possible time to trade him. The Yankees obviously knew that and that is why they low-balled an offer. They did not want Haren badly, but if he essentially fell into their laps they were willing to take yet another version of Vazquez and then figure out in the offseason how to re-organize financially.

3. The only pitcher who appeared in 40 games this year and has a worse ERA than Joba Chamberlain’s 5.95 is Fernando Nieve, who was recently released by the Mets with his 6.00 ERA. No one who has appeared in 40 games has a worse WHIP than Joba’s 1.61.

In other words with 60 percent of the season gone now, Chamberlain has arguably been the worst regularly used reliever in the majors. He certainly is in the conversation. Which is ridiculous considering his stuff, which might not be what it was in his electric 2007 debut, but is still certainly better than his performance.

It appears that Joe Girardi is on the brink of removing Joba from the eighth inning and going with David Robertson, instead. But here is something else to keep in mind: Is it possible that the Yanks would send Chamberlain to the minors as a way to a) work through some of the issues with his inconsistency and b) to shake up a guy who just might need to have his world jolted. Chamberlain has always struck me as the kind of player who gets way too comfortable in the majors. Maybe he needs to be reminded that he needs to consistency earn his way up here and that nothing is a given.

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3UP: Mets Mentality, Francoeur and A-Rod.

July 23, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. Omar Minaya gave Jerry Manuel a vote of confidence yesterday. He does not do that without Jeff Wilpon’s blessings. So that means Manuel is safe, at least for a while, if not the rest of the season.
	 
Look, we can all fire the manager. That is the most common knee-jerk response to team failure. Somehow you can convince yourself that if Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman or Gil Hodges’ ghost were managing this team that even now the Mets would be three games up in first place.
	 
But as an organization the Mets have a far more difficult job than removing a manager or hiring a new one. They have to ask this question: Why is this team so susceptible to the death spiral? Why when it gets hit does it find it so darn hard – in most cases impossible – to recover?
	 
My friend and colleague Mike Vaccaro, my foremost expert on the Mets (at least when Howie Rose and Gary Cohen are not accessible), said to me how much this current Met dive reminds him of the conclusion of 2007 when you really felt the Mets could not come back from even a one-run deficit.
	 
The Mets have that epic collapse in 2007. They also have a late-season plunge in 2008 in which they could not overcome the shoddy work of their bullpen in the way that, say, Philadelphia did with Brad Lidge last year to get all the way to the World Series. In 2009, the Mets essentially went into the fetal position once the injuries mounted. And now there is this current run of 13 straight games in which the team has scored three or fewer runs.
	 
How is that possible? Look at the names. Except this feels like another moment when the Mets cannot overcome whatever larger-than-the-manager issue enwraps them; this inability to keep a bad moment from spiraling into a contagion. There is something not right with, well, I don’t know. I watch it and I cannot explain it. Is it the wrong mix of players? Is it something that funnels down from ownership and infects play?
	 
I don’t know that there is an easy explanation and that is why I believe this is so much more difficult to solve than simply by firing the manager. What is it about this organization that when matters go wrong, they go horribly wrong? What is it that prevents this team from turning a one-alarm crisis into a season killer?
	 
2. I believe just about anyone can be traded. I remember in 1992, for example, that then Yankees manager Buck Showalter suggested that he would do something, um, uncomfortable if then GM Gene Michael could find a trade for Tim Leary, who arguably was the worst pitcher in baseball. Michael actually traded Leary to the Mariners.
	 
It can be done if you are willing to take on most of a salary and/or take back nothing in return or you find a rival executive who is no genius.
	 
That being said Jeff Francoeur might want to take a deep breath before making even subtle trade demands. Aside from the Newark Bears, I cannot imagine any team actually interested in his services. He was traded for equally damaged goods last year in Ryan Church and if he goes this time, it will be for even less than that.
	 
In fact, here is a question: Does Francoeur have a job in the majors next year. He will still be only 27. And everyone knows that he is a wonderful guy. But this is now two teams that have simply decided his lack of discipline at the plate is intolerable. It is one thing to have no discipline and be Vlad Guerrero, a unique talent who can swing at anything in North America and hit it. But which team is going to want to give a job to a .300 on-base percentage guy with OK but not special power? And who is going to want to give even a bench job to that same guy considering his swing/approach will probably get worse without frequent at-bats?
	 
3. I do not believe that Alex Rodriguez will press this weekend for his 600th homer. The way he performed last postseason exemplifies that he has found a way to handle pressure that had mostly escaped him previously. He has figured out that the best way to displace stress is to focus on wins and losses and recognize that his contributions will be appreciated all the more in that framework as opposed to simply as a numbers-accumulating ego monster.
	 
Obviously, his steroid revelations have dimmed the relevance of this milestone accomplishment. But I wonder if the back nine of his career is filled with clutch play, team-oriented actions and championships if that will do anything to help clean up his reputation, at least a little bit.

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3UP: Jeter, Joba and Montero

July 22, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. In today’s Post, I wrote this column taking a look if Brett Gardner rather than Derek Jeter should bat leadoff the rest of the season.This is essentially a paper vs. pedigree decision. On paper,... Read on

1. In today’s Post, I wrote this
	 columntaking a look if Brett Gardner rather than Derek Jeter should bat leadoff the rest of the season.
	 
This is essentially a paper vs. pedigree decision. On paper, Gardner is a much better choice at present. A leadoff hitter ideally gets on base at a high rate, sees a lot of pitches as a way to show everyone else in the lineup what the pitcher has that day and can use his legs to manufacture runs. In all of those areas, Gardner is currently superior to Jeter.
	 
His on-base percentage is 58 points better than Jeter’s, Gardner leads the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance, and he is one of the fastest runners in baseball.
	 
But in pedigree, Jeter is one of the best top-of-the-lineup hitters in major league history. He has proven he can handle the pressure and responsibility of a pennant race as a leading man, something the Yanks could not be assured of with Gardner. In the two weeks in May in which Gardner was the Yanks’ primary second-place hitter, he struggled as badly as at any point this year. Was that a small sample or symbolic that he is not yet ready to handle such a prominent spot.
	 
Hitting coach Kevin Long compared that Robinson Cano was not ready to be a primary No. 5 hitter two years ago, but maturity and experience allowed him to be ideal for the role this year. He sees the same profile for Gardner; that time will enable Gardner to become a strong top-of-the-rotation force.
	 
The other issue you have to deal with – and it is a huge one – is not disrespecting Jeter. He is an important leader of the team. The last thing you want the clubhouse thinking is “if the management of the team is willing to drop Jeter to eighth or ninth in the lineup, what will they do to me.”
	 
Joe Girardi displayed patience with Mark Teixeira earlier in the year when he was struggling and there were a lot of calls for Cano to be inserted into the three hole. Girardi felt the Yankees ran best if Teixeira stayed in the third spot and the Yankee manager also trusted Teixeira’s track record. Now Teixeira is a hot hitter who is helping the Yanks maintain their major league-best record.
	 
Teixeira, though, is in his prime and Jeter is 36. Can Jeter rediscover prime performance? It is clear the Yanks are going to give him every opportunity. They are not going to disturb either the lineup or psyche of the club by making such a major move with the biggest name on the team.
	 
2. There was a point at which the Yankees hoped Joba Chamberlain would be Mariano Rivera’s heir. But the more I watch Joba, the more I see a pitcher far different from Rivera: I see Kyle Farnsworth.
	 
Like Farnsworth, Chamberlain has stuff that should translate to consistent, high-level success. But like Farnsworth, Joba has trouble repeating his delivery, has a poor pitching IQ and does not find enough calm in trouble spots in order to execute pitches. That is why, like Farnsworth, Joba ends up with poor numbers that are tough to equate with his stuff. Also, like Farnsworth, Chamberlain now brings a sense of dread into Yankee Stadium when he comes into a game; what a tremendous difference from his 2007 debut in the pen.
	 
A few other quick thoughts on the Yankee pen: It really misses Alfredo Aceves. His versatility to pitch long or short, and do either with a high level of competence is a real absence, and only grows more so with the inconsistency of others.
	 
The Yankees are looking hard at the relief market. But so far have not found either the pieces and/or the prices appealing. It would not surprise me at all if the Yanks were shut out looking for bullpen help. If that happens, it also would not surprise me if they took some of their high-end, upper level starting prospects and saw if they could find some late-season magic in the pen with an Ivan Nova or David Phelps or Hector Noesi.
	 
3. I think it is more likely that the Yankees find the spare bat for which they also are looking, They have checked in on, for example, Florida’s Cody Ross, a righty-swinging outfielder who could put Curtis Granderson on the bench against tough lefties with Gardner shifting over to center. They also are looking for a hitter who could play third base and provide better offense than Ramiro Pena when Alex Rodriguez needs to either DH or rest. They have been associated with players such as Wes Helms and Jhonny Peralta.
	 
But as they are doing that, the Yankees also continue to look internally at what they have for solutions. The big eighth-inning homers by Juan Miranda and Colin Curtis provides info for the Yanks about an extra lefty bat; the Yanks have always believed that Miranda could hit for some power in the majors and they like Curtis’ feistiness and ability to play the outfield.
	 
They continue to wonder if Triple-A shortstop Eduard Nunez could be moved around as a superior utilityman to Pena; Nunez recently was asked to play some third base. The Yanks also are intrigued by the power of Double-A third baseman Gerald Laird.
	 
But the most interesting decision is going to involve Jesus Montero. The Yanks have not wanted to promote Montero this year for two major reasons: 1) He is just 20 and the Yanks want him to get a full year in at Triple-A, especially to further hone his catching skills. 2) He does not yet need to be put on the 40-man roster and the Yanks want to save spots in the offseason for maneuverability.
	 
It was not a big problem earlier in the year, since Montero was inconsistent offensively and hardly making a case that he should be promoted. But now Montero is showing the bat that landed him near the top of every prospect list and made him the player that the Mariners wanted in a Cliff Lee trade. In fact, it will be fascinating to look over the next few years if Seattle made a mistake by backing out of a trade with the Yankees involving Montero because the Mariners preferred Justin Smoak from Texas, instead. And we will see if the Yanks prove lucky that they were never able to complete a trade for Montero, who also was offered last offseason to Toronto for Roy Halladay and to Philadelphia for Lee.
	 
In his last three games, Montero is 9-for-10 with two doubles, two homers and three walks. In his past 24 games, he is 31-for-76 (.408) with seven doubles, seven homers, 16 walks and nine strikeouts.
	 
It is possible that the Yankees’ best construction down the stretch has Montero catching two games a week and being the DH three or four times. Remember what the 20-year-old Miguel Cabrera meant to Florida’s run to a championship in 2003, and Montero’s bat has drawn some comparisons to Cabrera.

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3UP: Yankees rotation, Girardi, Mets standing

July 21, 2010 , ι By Joel Sherman

1. In today’s Post I wrote this column about Yankee rotation issues. I suggest some perspective pointing out that, among other things, the current Yankee rotation (sans Andy Pettitte) is better than... Read on

1. In today’s Post I wrote this
	 column about Yankee rotation issues. I suggest some perspective pointing out that, among other things, the current Yankee rotation (sans Andy Pettitte) is better than what it was at this time last year and the Yanks nevertheless won 103 games last year. Also, remember, that Javier Vazquez was obtained as insurance because the Yanks were worried about the year-after-effect with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, who all had huge workloads last season.

The Yanks are actually blessed with how resilient their rotation has been. Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte all had made at least 50 regular-season starts since the beginning of last season. The only other team that had three pitchers start that often exclusively for them was the Giants with Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito.

At this point, the Yanks have played 92 games and just two have been started by anyone other than their main five starters. Sergio Mitre has both of those starts, and will also start Saturday in place of Pettitte. The only AL team that has not used anyone aside from five starters is Tampa Bay. The White Sox recently had to go away from its original five when Jake Peavy was lost for the season.

The Angels have had just two games started outside of their original five, including last night’s game against the Yanks by Sean O’Sullivan, filling in for the DLed Scott Kazmir.

2. I also wrote a
	 columnabout Joe Girardi’s potential candidacy as Cubs manager. There has been a strong belief that the job was going to be open after this season, and now with Lou Piniella’s official word that he is retiring, it is certainly open.

Like with fellow free agents Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, I assume Girardi will be back. But, unlike Jeter and Rivera, Girardi has ties elsewhere, specifically to the Cubs. Jeter and Rivera would probably be uncomfortable and/or diminished in another uniform. It is not the same with Girardi.

And I do remember that Girardi and his agent negotiated hard and used the Dodgers for leverage after the 2007 season before he signed with the Yankees. Would he do it again? I don’t know. He did seem genuinely distraught last week by the death of George Steinbrenner, and has mentioned how much the Steinbrenners have done for him. I do know Girardi has put down stakes in Westchester. He has property in both Illinois and Florida, but his children go to school in Westchester.

Again, I strongly suspect that the Cubs would probably want Girardi badly, but that he will end up back with the Yankees as the owner of a lucrative, three-year contract. However, if you told me one from among Jeter, Rivera and Girardi would not be back next year, I would pick the guy with legitimate ties elsewhere.

3. As bad as events have gone for the Mets on this West Coast trip, they are still just 3 1-2 games back in the wild card standings. But they trail three teams (Cincinnati, San Francisco and Colorado), are tied with the Dodgers and are just a half game up on the Phillies. The Giants look like a different team with Buster Posey in the lineup finally giving the strong pitching staff some offensive help. The Rockies might have the most complete roster in the whole NL. The Reds have excess starting pitching. And the Phillies have the pedigree to know how to finish a season plus might just have a Roy Oswalt trade to make.

So the question the Mets must face in the immediate future is should they give up any of their prospects for a run at the playoffs. Obviously, 3 1-2 games is not an immense deficit. On the other hand, do you feel that even a good innings eater such as Brett Myers is truly going to catapult them into the playoffs with a chance to do something there?

The best part of this Mets season is probably going to be Jonathon Niese, Ike Davis, Angel Pagan and, perhaps, Josh Thole establishing themselves as major leaguers with promise. So the question becomes should the Mets trade any prospects now that might dent the future when the odds of winning might not be that strong? I know Met fans who have suffered with the past three years of collapses and embarrassment don’t want to be talking 2011, right now, and ownership is desperate to keep attendance from falling to anything humiliating in August and September.

But this organization might need to take a deep breath, right now, and determine how strong a team it really is in 2010. Carlos Beltran was supposed to help make things better. The presence of soft marks on the schedule such as Arizona was supposed help make things better. Maybe Beltran will find his stroke and the easy marks (Arizona, Houston and Pittsburgh) will help the Mets accumulate wins and capture the wild card.

However, if you were truly invested with the power to decide what the Mets should do next and you removed the passion from the decision which way would you go: Add a starter at the cost of a few prospects or just go with what you have, take your long-shot chance in 2010 and keep building toward a more positive future.

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3UP: AL East, NL East, Reyes

July 16, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1, In today’s Post I wrote this column about how George Steinbrenner used to view games against Tampa Bay, and how that will be so different tonight in the first game the Yankees will play since 1972... Read on

1, In today’s Post I wrote
	 this column about how George Steinbrenner used to view games against Tampa Bay, and how that will be so different tonight in the first game the Yankees will play since 1972 without The Boss atop the organization’s masthead.
	 
There will be a lot going on at the Stadium, with memorials for Steinbrenner and Bob Sheppard, plus – of course – an important game between the teams with the majors’ best records.
	 
But I have a feeling that both teams tonight will also have an eye on the scoreboard to watch what is happening in Fenway Park with the Red Sox again hosting the Rangers. Texas blew out Boston last night and the Red Sox fell 5 1-2 behind the first-place Yankees.
	 
The worst place to finish in the sport this year may be third place in the AL East because you could potentially claim to be the third-best team in the majors, yet not make the playoffs. Obviously, only the division winner is assured of anything, but the second-place team is likely to reach the mid-90s in wins, at minimum, and probably will be the wild card.
	 
So there is a race within the race going on in the division now: Can the Red Sox hang close to a playoff spot as they slowly get healthy, and then make a thunderous charge at the end with most of their full squad? They are hoping to integrate Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz back into the rotation before the end of the month, and hope that Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and others are not too far behind.
	 
The Red Sox have done a fantastic job, to this point, of hanging in the race despite more injuries to more key players than any other team in the sport. Unlike the 2009 Mets, Boston has had the depth of talent and fortitude to continue to play at a high level despite the devastating shots at their roster.
	 
But the Yankees and Rays are both good enough to keep winning at a high level and, perhaps, make the gap too large for even a full-health Red Sox squad to catch up. That is why the Yanks and Rays will be watching those Red Sox scores: Because if Boston falls back it removes a huge hurdle to both teams making the playoffs this year.
	 
2. The Braves also are beginning to put distance between themselves and the NL East competition, and if that continues then the Mets and Phillies are going to be part of a crowded race for the wild card. The Mets are five back now, the Phillies 5 1/2.
	 
Atlanta players gave Alex Gonzalez a standing ovation when he walked into the clubhouse, a good-to-see you and a good-to-see the divisive Yunel Escobar gone. Then Jair Jurrjens continued his strong physical/production rebound and Jason Heyward came off the DL to make strong catches and Billy Wagner continued as the NL’s best closer. Atlanta has a glow about it now, and the other NL East contenders are under pressure right away here in the second half to keep them within sight for a late charge.
	 
3. It has been nearly 14 months now, since May 20, 2009, that the Mets have had a lineup with both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran starting. Jerry Manuel thought he would have that lineup yesterday before having to scratch Reyes again with continued oblique problems.
	 
If the Mets can get their “A” lineup on the field, Manuel will be able to have diverse switch-hitters in three of the first four spots (Reyes, Angel Pagan and Beltran), which should cause match-up problems late for opposing managers. But when is the debut of that lineup? Tonight? Tomorrow?
	 
The oblique injury to Reyes has lingered, and so has the Met problem of not being able to play all of their best players at one time. The Mets are currently 19th in the majors in scoring. That could change big time in the second half with health and better power/run production from Jason Bay.
	 
Or is this Met lineup a tease? You imagine what it could be, but it never becomes that.

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3UP: Hal, George, Braves/Jays trade

July 15, 2010 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. In today’s Post, I wrote this column about how Hal Steinbrenner has been in charge of the Yankees for a few years now and I suspect nothing will change in how the organization is run.In many ways... Read on

1. In today’s Post, I wrote this
	 columnabout how Hal Steinbrenner has been in charge of the Yankees for a few years now and I suspect nothing will change in how the organization is run.
	 
In many ways Hal represents an ideal owner. He is willing to keep high payrolls. He is demanding, but allows his department heads do their jobs. He is not an egomaniac and only wants to stay in the background. He believes in the logical argument.
	 
Look, if George was still George and in charge, the Yankees would probably have Cliff Lee right now. In the end, once the Rangers agreed to put Justin Smoak into a package for Lee, the Yanks’ only chance to lure the Mariners back to their offer was to throw in Triple-A shortstop prospect Eduardo Nunez in addition to Jesus Montero. The Yanks had said no to that request a few weeks earlier and said no again. But, I suspect, George might have ordered the Yanks to go for Lee.
	 
That is the kind of impetuous grab for the big name that fans would love about George. But that nature also led them to rashly jump for Kenny Rogers and Raul Mondesi and Jaret Wright, among others.
	 
Hal Steinbrenner is much more logical. He will break on occasion to change the payroll structure a bit, as he did after the 2008 season when he finally was worn down by GM Brian Cashman and agreed to sign Mark Teixeira. But, in general, he is going to hold the line on big names and expenditures a tad more than his dad did.
	 
2. There were a bunch of Boss catchphrases that came to have meaning beyond the obvious. Here are two or my favorites:
	 
If he referred to your “little family” you were in trouble. If he referred to you looking “tan and rested” you were probably going to have something good happen, usually it meant you were getting hired for a job.
	 
3. I liked the Braves-Blue Jays trade yesterday. Alex Gonzalez is having the best offensive year of his career and he should help lengthen the first-place Braves’ lineup. In addition, Atlanta felt it was time to get rid of Yunel Escobar, whose talent was getting overwhelmed by other issues, including a serial lack of hustle. This behavior appeared to be wearing not only on manager Bobby Cox and the front office, but the clubhouse, as well.
	 
But an organization such as Toronto has to be trying to figure out how to obtain young, cost-effective talent. And whatever his problems, Escobar is loaded with talent. Will it ever come out? I don’t know. But I do know that players as good as Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano regularly frustrated the Yankees with either bonehead play or perceived lack of effort.
	 
There were calls early on in those players’ careers to trade each one for those reasons. But as they got older, their talents fully blossomed and made Yanks glad they never dealt them away. Williams and Posada remained, for example, brutal baserunners, and Williams could still often drift mentally. But the overall package was still championship level.
	 
Will Escobar ever be that? Of course, the odds are against him. But I have seen him do stuff on the field that is awesome. He is talented. He might remain frustrating talent, but where the Blue Jays are in their history they need to be in the young, talent collection business, and Escobar remains a young talent.

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About the Author

JOEL SHERMAN Joel Sherman has been at the Post since 1989, serving as Yankees beat writer from 1989-95 and baseball columnist since 1996. His Hardball blog won a 2008 Best Sports Blog honor from the Associated Press Managing Editors Association. Joel’s books include "Birth of a Dynasty, Behind the Pinstripes with the 1996 Yankees." He served as a weekly baseball analyst on New York 1 from 2000-05, was a regular contributor on the MSG Network from 2000-08, and was part of the My 9 Yankees postgame show for the past two seasons. He graduated from NYU in 1985. Columnist Archives