Fantasy Tracker

Fantasy Tracker

Many owners likely tweaked their fantasy draft boards today when hearing news Terrell Owens is headed to the Bengals and that Patriots WR Wes Welker was placed on the physically unable to perform list.
	 
 
	 
But there's no reason to do heavy revisions. Neither move should dramatically effect their potential production.
	 
 
	 
Welker still is a strong pick in round 5-7. All reports seem to suggest he could play in Week 1. The PUP list move, it seems, was done more for roster flexibility than health concerns. Once the top WRs on your draft board include players like Dewayne Bowe, Donald Driver, etc., don't be afraid to reach for Welker a round early.
	 
 
	 
T.O. has been slipping to the 120s, and sometimes beyond. This was before he had a team. Expect his draft status to rise, likely into the top 100. But his value remains about the same. He is no better than a bye-week fill-in or emergency starter. The Bengals don't throw the ball well. Chad Ochocinco has been playing with QB Carson Palmer for years, so they have a chemistry impossible for T.O. to rival. And free-agent signee Antonio Bryant may be the best of the bunch at this point in his career. And don't forget about draft pick Jordan Shipley.
	 
 
	 
Let someone else snag T.O.

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What a catch: Receivers on the rise in fantasy football

July 23, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

While the production and value of wide receivers has grown in recent years, fantasy owners still value top-tier running backs and quarterbacks over their pass-catching counterparts.
	 
Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald have helped to strengthen the position of WR, but the fact that most of the top flight WRs still manage to score the same amount of points as a second-tier RB has pushed most wideouts out of the first round.
	 
It is true that there is more depth at WR than there is at RB, just because of the logistics of an NFL offense, but as more and more teams adopt a RBBC (Running Back By Committee) system, the wide receiver position on your fantasy team becomes increasingly important.
	 
So which WRs are worthy of spending a first-round pick on? Here’s a look at Fantasy Tracker’s Top 10 WRs for 2010.

1. Randy Moss – New England Patriots
	 
Moss recaptures the throne atop the WR ranks in 2010 due partly to his production, but also because I have questions about Larry Fitzgerald that I will address a little later. Moss had 305 less yards than Andre Johnson last season, but he did manage to haul in four more touchdown passes than the Texans’ top target. Moss has shown what he can do with a healthy Tom Brady in the past, and we all know the Patriots love to throw the ball and run up the score (see 2007-08), so Moss’ production is likely to hover around 1,300 yards and 14 TDs in 2010. You can’t go wrong with Moss or Johnson here, but I think Moss’ ability to find the endzone makes him a better selection in the first round.
	 
2. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
	 
I couldn’t fault anyone who took Andre Johnson over Moss in the first round, especially considering that he has caught over 100 passes and topped 1,550 yards in each of his past two seasons. Johnson has also put to rest any injury concerns that developed after he missed seven games in 2007-08 by playing a full slate of games over the past two years. Johnson is the number one target in a pretty effective Houston Texans offense and should benefit from a healthy Owen Daniels and improved Kevin Walter. The only concern of mine that arises with Johnson, as I mentioned before, is his relatively low touchdown total. Regardless, Johnson should not last past the first round in any format, and is as safe as they come at the WR position.
	 
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
	 
It’s pretty difficult to rank a guy like Fitzgerald third, and what makes it even tougher is that he has caught 293 passes for 3,932 yards and 35 TDs over the past three seasons. It isn’t Fitzgerald’s production that is the issue for me here, although he did see a significant drop in yardage last season (1,431 to 1,092), but rather it is the losses the Cardinals have suffered this past offseason. Fitzgerald has lost Kurt Warner to retirement and Anquan Boldin to the Ravens, meaning that with Matt Leinart and Steve Breaston serving as their replacements, the Cardinals offense will focus solely on Fitzgerald. Not that a little double-coverage ever stopped Fitz in the past, but he will be seeing a steady dosage of it this season. Don’t be surprised if we see another drop in production from Fitzgerald and try to avoid overpaying for him on draft day.

REUTERS

4. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys
	 
Miles Austin has a lot going on for him right now. Aside from dating Kim Kardashian, he is also one of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL. Austin almost had more yards in Week 5 (250) than he did in all of the 2008-09 season (278). Austin had five games last season where he topped the 100-yard mark, including four games where he managed to rack up 125+ yards. If Austin is the real deal, which I am still not sure of, his stock will only rise with the Cowboys drafting WR Dez Bryant to line up across from him this year. Austin is at best a late second round pick, unless of course you get Kim in a packaged deal.
	 
5. Desean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
	 
Desean Jackson hauled in nine touchdown passes, but his 12 total touchdowns managed to give him the second-highest touchdown total amongst receivers in 2009-10. Jackson is a triple threat and has emerged as one of the elite receivers in the NFL. Jackson was able to rack up 137 rushing and 441 punt return yards to go along with his 1,137 receiving yards last year. Jackson shouldn’t take much of a hit from Donovan McNabb’s departure, but it could be a cause for concern when considering drafting the Eagles’ wideout. Jackson is a solid third-round pick in any format.
	 
6. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts
	 
As long as Peyton Manning is throwing the ball to him, Wayne will always be on this list.

7. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons
	 
One of the best receivers in the NFL seems to fly under the radar every year on draft day.
	 
8. Sidney Rice – Minnesota Vikings
	 
Had his big coming out party last season, racking up eight TDs to go with 1,312 yards. His rank hinges on Brett Favre’s decision to return.
	 
9. Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins
	 
Marshall took his talents to South Beach. The outspoken receiver has hauled in over 100 passes in each of the past three seasons.
	 
10. Chad Ochocinco – Cincinnati Bengals
	 
Ochocinco burst back onto the scene last year and will have Antonio Bryant taking some of the heat off of him from opposing defensive corps.

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Fantasy Tracker: Running away from backs in the first round

July 19, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

There once was a time where running backs were the most important piece of a fantasy team, and if you missed out on a home run back, your team was almost guaranteed to limp through the season.
	 
That was then, this is now. The reality of fantasy football is that outside of the top three or four backs, there isn’t a plethora of big-time rushers that will carry a squad. In fact, after the top names are called out on draft day, the safer first-round pick might be landing a QB like Drew Brees or a WR like Andre Johnson.
	 
There is still a good number of backs that will provide excellent production, but with the popularity of Running Backs By Committee (RBBC), the field is much deeper than in previous years. Here is a look at the Post’s Top 10 running backs for the 2010 season.

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1. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans
	 
I’ve already made the case for Chris Johnson as the number one overall pick in an earlier blog post, so he is obviously going to be my pick as the top running back out of this year’s crop. Johnson likely won’t be able to replicate his 2,000 yard performance from last season, but he has the ability to break off long runs in any situation. Just to reiterate, Johnson was able to tally up 12 100-plus yard rushing games, including 11 straight to close out the season. Johnson also turned out six multi-score games, one of which came in Week 14, a playoff time for most fantasy leagues. Johnson’s yardage far outweighs the two extra scores that Adrian Peterson had over him last year and he should be the consensus number one pick this year.
	 
2. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings
	 
Peterson is one of the most electric and dynamic runners in the NFL, but his chronic fumbling makes him a liability in leagues that penalize you for fumbles lost. Peterson has rushed for 1,300-plus yards in each of his first three seasons, but has also managed to fumble the ball 20 times over that same span (13 lost). Assuming Brett Favre comes back, I believe that Peterson plays in a better offense and opposing defenses will not be able to stack the box the same way they could against Johnson with Vince Young taking the snaps in Tennesee. Peterson and Johnson are clearly a step above any other back in this year’s draft, but the problem for AP is that Johnson is clearly a step above him at the same time.
	 
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars
	 
Maurice Jones-Drew had more yards than Adrian Peterson and more rushing TDs than Chris Johnson, but he manages to find himself behind those two on this list. The fact of the matter is though MJD trumps Johnson and Peterson in certain places, overall as a running back, he is third on the list. He tallied career-highs in both yards (1,391) and TDs (16), but MJD also watched his carries increase from 197 to 312, a 125 carry difference. The last number there concerns me because Jones-Drew is the type of runner who bruises and bashes his way through defense, meaning his body is taking a pretty good beating. Is that enough to drop him out of the top 5 overall? No, but it is something to keep in mind on draft day.

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4. Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers
	 
It might be safe for us to assume Frank Gore’s sophomore season in 2006-07 was a fluke, but that doesn’t mean you cannot strike gold with San Francisco’s running back. Gore isn’t the 2,180 total yard beast that we saw during the aforementioned season, but he did manage to rack up 1,526 yards last year while finding the end zone 13 times. Gore is a very good selection in the mid-to-late first round, but this is exactly what I was talking about before, Gore represents the elite of the second tier of backs and owners should avoid overpaying for him on draft day.
	 
5. Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens
	 
I originally had Rice ranked higher than Gore, but bumped him down because he falls victim to the dreaded RBBC. Rice totaled over 2,000 yards last season on 332 touches, however because of Willis McGahee, the newest player to don the title “Touchdown Vulture,” he was only able to find paydirt eight times. Rice will likely benefit from the addition of Anquan Boldin, in the sense that the Ravens finally have a legitimate passing threat outside of the backfield, but until he can start punching it in on the goal line he will not be considered an elite fantasy option.
	 
6. Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams
	 
He was able to rack up 1,416 yards last season, but unless Sam Bradford can truly open up the Rams’ offense, opposing defenses will continue to stack the box against Jackson.
	 
7. Cedric Benson – Cincinnati Bengals
	 
Surprised everyone with 1,251 yards last year but missed three games and slowed down considerably in the second half of the season.

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8. Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons
	 
Turner came crashing down to earth last season after an incredible 2008-09, but still managed to score 10 TDs in 11 games.
	 
9. Ryan Grant – Green Bay Packers
	 
Grant managed to tally more yards in fewer carries last season while scoring 11 times for the Packers.
	 
10. Thomas Jones – Kansas City Chiefs
	 
Jones goes from rushing behind one of the best O-lines in the game to splitting carries with Jamaal Charles on a team that had 8 rushing TDs last season.

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Fantasy Tracker: At QB, top pick is a Brees

July 12, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

Just like they did battle in Super Bowl XLIV, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will do battle to be selected as the top quarterback in Fantasy Football drafts this year.Even if you fail to land one of... Read on

Just like they did battle in Super Bowl XLIV, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will do battle to be selected as the top quarterback in Fantasy Football drafts this year.
	 
Even if you fail to land one of the top two QBs, there is an incredible amount of depth at the position this season. Here is the Fantasy Tracker’s list of top 10 quarterbacks for the 2010 Fantasy Football season.

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1. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints
	 
It’s really hard for me to argue that selecting Peyton Manning as the top QB is a mistake because at the end of the day you cannot go wrong with him or Brees, but I do believe Brees is the better selection. Brees is coming off a season when he saw his production drop by nearly 700 yards and he still managed to find himself in the upper echelon of quarterbacks. Brees has thrown for over 25 touchdowns in each of his four seasons in the Big Easy and as managed to throw for at least 4,300 yards in each season during that span (including 5,069 in ’08). The main reason I would take Brees over Manning is that I believe with Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Devry Henderson, Reggie Bush and Robert Meachem, New Orleans has more weapons than the historically dynamic Indianapolis Colts offense. Brees is worthy of a first-round pick in any league and could be selected as high as fourth overall after the big three backs.
	 
2. Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts
	 
There is virtually no dropoff in production between Brees and Manning, and one could even argue that Manning had a better year statistically than Brees in 2009. Manning managed to pass for more yards (4,500) than Brees while tying him for an NFL-best 34 touchdowns. Manning is about as consistent as they come, throwing for at least 3,700 yards and 26 touchdowns in every season of his Hall of Fame career, which means it could be worth it to overpay for the security here. Manning also has played in all 16 games in every one of his seasons, meaning there should be little to no concern over him missing significant time in the season.
	 
3. Brett Favre – Minnesota Vikings
	 
Assuming he returns for another go around with the Vikings, and I think we all expect that to happen, Favre immediately becomes a top option at QB in 2010. Favre, like fine wine, appears to get better with age as he has managed to throw 83 touchdowns over the past three seasons and was one TD pass behind league leaders Manning and Brees in 2009. Favre’s 33 TDs, 7 INTs and 4,202 yards were his best totals since 1998-99, and his .684 completion percentage was the highest total of his career. With a solid running game behind him and dreams of another Super Bowl, Favre is worth taking in the early rounds, even if he hasn’t officially announced he will be playing this season.

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4. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers
	 
Even after taking over for Brett Favre in Lambeau, Rodgers still finds himself behind his former mentor in my fantasy rankings. Now that isn’t to say Rodgers isn’t an elite option at QB, because he is, but there are some concerns I have over his ability to stay healthy when he gets sacked an average of 42 times a season. Depending on your scoring format, Rodgers may have been the highest scoring quarterback in your league last year, and he should be taken very high this year because of it. In two seasons as a full-time starter, Rodgers has averaged 29 touchdowns and 4,236 yards a season. In addition, Rodgers has rushed for over 500 yards and scored 9 times during that same two-year span, making him a threat on the ground as well.
	 
5.
	 Matt Schaub – Houston Texans
	 
Schaub notched career-highs across the board in 2009, throwing for 29 touchdowns and a league-best 4,770 yards. Schaub has benefited from throwing to one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL (Andre Johnson) and one of the up-and-coming tight ends in the league (Owen Daniels). Schaub is ranked high, but I am hesitant to include him among the “elite” ranks of fantasy quarterbacks just yet, considering he missed a total of 10 games in 2007 and 2008. Schaub is still a very good option at QB and should be drafted in or around the 4th round.
	 
6.
	 Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers– Rivers takes a hit after watching his touchdown total drop from 34 to 28 from 2008 to 2009.
	 
7.
	 Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys– I’m still not sold on Miles Austin as a legitimate No. 1 WR, but Dez Bryant should provide Romo with a nice target downfield and in the red zone.
	 
8.Tom Brady – New England Patriots – New England’s Golden Boy is throwing to an aging Randy Moss and a recovering Wes Welker. His elite fantasy days are over.
	 
9.
	 Eli Manning – New York Giants– The younger Manning had two games when he failed to throw a touchdown pass last season, but can Steve Smith replicate his explosive 2009?
	 
10.
	 Joe Flacco –Baltimore Ravens– With the addition of Anquan Boldin, Joe Flacco should make a big jump in 2010.

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AP or CJ?

July 07, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

It’s July, which means that even though we are still two months away from the start of the NFL regular season, football fever is sweeping the nation (sorry soccer fans, I mean the real kind of football ...).
	 
Fantasy football fanatics are starting to whip together their cheat sheets and compose mock drafts, meaning it’s time for the Fantasy Tracker to outline not only the rankings of each position, but also some basic draft tips and strategies for the 2010 season.
	 
The first issue I’d like to tackle (no pun intended), is the debate that will be popping up in chat rooms, message boards, offices and homes around America come draft day; Who should be the top fantasy pick in 2010, Adrian “All Day” Peterson, or Chris “CJ2K” Johnson.
	 
The truth is, you cannot go wrong with either Johnson or Peterson, as both were fantasy juggernauts in 2009, but if you are looking to give one back the edge, there is no doubt that Chris Johnson is the way to go.
	 
I am a huge fan of Adrian Peterson, and I have had him in at least one league in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, but there are a few questions I have about the Vikings tailback, and they should be considered come draft day.

UPI

Throughout his career, Peterson has had a problem holding onto the rock, and in most leagues fumbles lost count negatively toward your point total for the week. Think about this: If a fumble lost counts for –2 points, which it did in one of my leagues last year, Peterson’s six fumbles lost in 2009 would have effectively negated two of his 18 touchdowns. Compare that with Johnson’s three lost fumbles, and you can already see Johnson has the advantage in that category.
	 
Now assuming Peterson’s chronic fumbling isn’t enough to deter you, consider the hit his production may take in 2010. From 2008 to 2009, Peterson saw his carries drop from 363 to 314, a number that seemingly translated into 377 fewer yards last season. Though the yards aren’t too big of a concern, the fact the Vikings drafted Stanford running back Toby Gerhardt to back up Peterson may result in fewer goal-line carries for Peterson.
	 
Again, neither of these problems concern me enough to drop Peterson out of the top three in any format, but it’s little things like this that can have big implications in fantasy football.
	 
As for Johnson, who can really fault someone for taking a player who racked up 2,500 total yards and 16 TDs last season.

AP

Granted he does not play in the same high-octane offense as the Vikings', but Johnson is probably the most explosive and dynamic back in the NFL.
	 
Johnson had 12 100+ yard rushing games last season, including 10 straight to close the season, making him one of the most consistent backs in the NFL. Johnson also scored multiple touchdowns in six games in 2009, one more than Peterson had last year.
	 
What really makes Johnson a complete back, and therefore a better option at No. 1 than Peterson, is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Johnson reeled in seven more catches and 67 more yards than Peterson, but was able to find the end zone two more times than his NFC counterpart.
	 
All in all, you cannot go wrong with either pick entering 2010, but if I were the one making the call, Chris Johnson would be the first name off the board.
	 
For more fantasy updates or comments, follow me on Twitter: @TSulla

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The Bourn Identity

June 30, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Michael Bourn isn’t as affective as Jason Bourne is in the trilogy of films based on the Robert Ludlum books. Michael Bourn represents a group of players that have... Read on

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Michael Bourn isn’t as affective as Jason Bourne is in the trilogy of films based on the Robert Ludlum books.
	 
Michael Bourn represents a group of players that have similar fantasy value. In fact, despite their impressive numbers in the stolen bases and runs categories, upon examining their other numbers, one has to question whether or not they are worth keeping on your fantasy roster.

AP

Bourn has never been a player to smash home runs, and due to the fact that he hits leadoff, he has never driven in many RBIs (his career high is 35). With the lack of power and run production, Bourn’s real value comes from him stealing bases, scoring runs and hitting for average, all of which he did last year (.285 BA, 97 R, 61 SBs).
	 
This year however, while Bourn has stolen his share of bases (23) and scored his runs (47), his batting average (.265) has looked more like his ’08 one (.229) than ’09, and that’s following a night where he went 4-for-6 with his first HR of the season and two RBIs.
	 
Considering the fact that he has one HR, 16 RBIs and is hitting as low as he is, one has to question whether or not it is worth it to have him take up a roster spot when another player can provide more production in a greater number of categories.
	 
***
	 
It’s Nyjer here nor there, but ...
	 
Nyjer Morgan has been even worse than Michael Bourn, and after watching him go 0-for-4 and get picked off by Tim Hudson last night, it's time to wonder if it’s even worth it to have him on a fantasy team anymore.

AP

Morgan is hitting .248, which is 103 points lower than he hit last season in 49 games with the Nationals, has 0 home runs and has only driven in 11 RBIs.
	 
To take it a step further, Morgan has already been caught stealing 11 times this season, and that isn’t counting the number of times he has been picked off.
	 
Morgan’s 34 runs scored and 16 steals aren’t even enough to keep him on a bench, especially when his .311 OBP and caught stealing numbers mean he doesn’t even get a chance to steal or score runs as much as he should be.
	 
I’d drop him from the roster if you haven’t already, he’ll stick around the free agent wire for a while so if he shows signs of heating up, you can always pick him back up.
	 
***
	 
He may play in a Coliseum, but he is certainly no fantasy gladiator ...

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Oakland A’s CF Rajai Davis follows suit when it comes to disappointing players who only have value in the stolen base and runs scored categories, but he is a little bit better than both Bourn and Morgan.
	 
Davis has more HRs (2) and RBIs (21) than the aforementioned players, but his .265 BA, 26 SBs and 33 runs scored still aren't enough to merit him starting over some other outfielders who can produce in more categories.
	 
In addition to that, Davis is mired in a nice little slump, going 1-for-20 over his past six games.
	 
***
	 
The Constant Gardner
	 
Brett Gardner has been one player who hasn’t fallen victim to this growing trend this season.

Anthony J. Causi / New York Post

The Yankees outfielder has shown he is ready to play full-time this year by hitting .321 with a .403 OBP in 70 games with the Bombers. Gardner has also matched or bested his career highs in HRs, RBIs and runs scored in less than half a season. Gardner benefits from hitting in a great lineup and a hitter’s ballpark, and has shown he has a very high IQ when it comes to running the bases as he has 24 steals and has been caught five times.
	 
The one problem with Gardner is that because he has been so successful, odds are you will have to overpay for him in any trade at this point in the season.

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At 'Witz' end

June 24, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

Though it is incredibly rewarding to see a player on your fantasy team do well, it is also incredibly frustrating when a member of your fantasy roster either underperforms or misses significant time due to injury.
	 
In this entry, let's talk about one of the more frustrating players this season and a trend that has fantasy owners pulling their hair out worldwide.
	 
We'll start with a player who was drafted in the early rounds and was projected to be a top-ranked player at his position, Troy Tulowitzki.

AP

There will be many defenders of Tulowitzki, claiming it is very difficult to bash a guy who is hitting .306 with nine home runs, 34 RBIs, 47 runs scored and seven steals, but I will make a case as to why he is one of the most aggravating and frustrating players in fantasy baseball.
	 
Consider the fact that Tulowitzki’s name was likely called off the board before the third round in most traditional drafts, or if you prefer auction leagues, he was probably one of the highest-priced players.
	 
Tulowitzki is now set to miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured wrist, and wrist injuries take a notoriously long time to fully heal, especially for baseball players (just ask Big Papi). More than likely Tulowitzki owners have effectively lost the Rockies’ superstar for the remainder of the season.
	 
The lure of Tulowitzki, and this is becoming more the case recently as compared to recent years, is that he plays a position (shortstop) that doesn’t generate the kind of power he can put up (32 hrs in ’09). Looking at that, it has to be at least a little disappointing that through May 19, Tulowitzki only had one long ball under his belt. Even at his present number of nine, if you project that over a full season, his total lands in the 20-25 range, a large enough drop-off to upset owners who projected 30-35 for him.
	 
If you combine the lack of power with his recent wrist injury, Tulowitzki is has been a disappointment so far this season.
	 
Now that I’ve vented about Tulowitzki, I am going to set my sights on a wider target, team personnel who find it necessary to limit the innings of young starting pitchers.

AP

The Yankees appear to be the trend-setters in this recent phenomenon, seeing as they have already “ruined” Joba Chamberlain in many eyes, and are now skipping Phil Hughes to monitor/limit his innings.
	 
Now I understand the logic behind limiting the innings of a young starter, and those who aren’t familiar with the Verducci Effect should google it right away, but the fact that a starter who is 10-1 with a 3.17 ERA and looks to be one of the favorites to start the All-Star game is being skipped at this point in the season is frustrating nonetheless.
	 
Hughes has become a victim of his own effectiveness, as the fact that he hasn’t been pulled before pitching five innings in any of his starts has put him around the same number of innings (82) as he was at last year (86), when he was primarily used as a reliever.
	 
If the Yankees are abiding by the guidelines of the Verducci effect, Hughes’ innings limit will be around 116 for this season.
	 
Hughes joins fellow Yankee Chamberlain as pitchers the organizations are looking to preserve for the future by limiting their innings.
	 
For those of you who were excited about Hughes’ incredible start and were looking at the young pitcher as another ace on your fantasy roster for the 2nd half, I’d have a contingency plan.

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The dreaded sophomore slump

June 21, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

With the recent demotion of Rick Porcello, the growing trend of players experiencing the dreaded “Sophomore Slump” has become a deterrent for many fantasy owners who drafted the young stars with hopes of them carrying their team through the summer.
	 
Porcello joins a list of high-profile second-year players including Matt Wieters, Gordon Beckham and Chris Coghlan who have under-performed in 2010.
	 
That isn’t to say there aren’t plenty of second year players who are pulling their weight, but if the names mentioned above show anything, it’s that even if a player has a strong rookie season or even if they are labeled as a can’t-miss prospect (Wieters), basing your fantasy success on the shoulders of relatively unproven players could be a costly gamble.
	 
Porcello (4-7 6.14 ERA) isn’t the only young Tigers pitcher who has struggled this season. He is following in the footsteps of Armando “Imperfect” Galarraga and Max Scherzer as Tigers pitchers to have stints in the minors this season.
	 
Porcello was a very serviceable pitcher in 2009, going 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA, but in my opinion was never more than a SP4 or SP5 option coming into 2010. If you delve a little bit deeper into his numbers from last season, i.e. the 1.34 WHIP and 23 HRs allowed, the drop in production and effectiveness shouldn’t shock many the way it has.
	 
Much like Galarraga and Scherzer before him, Porcello may be able to figure out what is wrong during his little Triple-A vacation, but his ceiling in terms of fantasy output remains low due to his poor WHIP and strikeout/walk ratio (112/74 career).

REUTERS

Matt Wieters probably has hidden himself so well because of the fact that if you hit .223 for the Orioles, you are one of their best offensive players.
	 
All kidding aside, Wieters has been an incredible disappointment this season, hitting a meager .223 with only 5 HRs and 21 RBIs. Considering the fact he was projected to be a top 10 catcher in many fantasy formats this season and is hitting in the middle of the Orioles lineup, these numbers are incredibly discouraging.
	 
At this point, unless it is a keeper league and you drafted Wieters in the late rounds (which is unlikely), Wieters has become waiver-wire material and should be benched or dropped in any format.
	 
About the only thing good about Gordon Beckham is the fact he will have ridiculous eligibility options for the remainder of this season. After playing third base last season, the White Sox moved their star rookie to second base, a transition that may have been detrimental to Beckham’s growth as a hitter.
	 
The numbers never lie, and in 154 more at-bats last season, Beckham had 13 more HRs, 47 more RBIs and hit 65 points higher. Whether Beckham is stressing too much over learning a new position, I don’t know, but what seems more than likely is that he is a player with a lot of holes in his swing and pitchers have come to exploit that fact.
	 
At this point, Beckham isn’t worth anything, regardless of the fact that he can be played at 3B, 2B, CI, MI, or U.
	 
Finally, I’ll end with perhaps the least disappointing player on this list but the one who had the highest accolade last season, Chris Coghlan.

AP

Coghlan, who won the NL Rookie of the Year last season for the Marlins, has seen his production take a bit of a hit in 2010. Statistically, he is on pace to be at or around the numbers he had last season in almost every category, except for batting average. In my opinion, what won Coghlan the ROY last season over J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson was his ability to hit for average and get on base. Coghlan has watched his average dip from .321 to .276 and his OBP to slip from .390 to .337, two categories that are vital to the success of a lead-off hitter.
	 
Coghlan’s drop off isn’t as severe as the others, but he has fallen victim to the sophomore slump and cannot be ignored.

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Not at the table Carlos

June 16, 2010 , ι By ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER

Much like the stars of the smash-hit comedy “The Hangover,” Carlos Lee and Carlos Pena have been trying to piece together the memories of their hitting prowess. It seems as if both Lee and... Read on

Much like the stars of the smash-hit comedy “The Hangover,” Carlos Lee and Carlos Pena have been trying to piece together the memories of their hitting prowess.

It seems as if both Lee and Pena were a bit hungover this season, seeing as they were both mired in slumps earlier in 2010, but now they are back to mashing the ball like they had in seasons’ past.
	 
Carlos Lee has been one of the more consistent players in terms of offensive production over the past decade or so. There was a time where Lee was a lock to hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs, but for some reason he never really earned the kind of recognition that his output merited.
	 
In any case, Lee’s fantasy stock dropped somewhat as we entered 2010, mainly due to the fact that he plays at a deep position and sits in the middle of an anemic Houston Astros offense. Lee started off very slowly and on May 4th, just about one month into the season, was hitting a measly .198 with no home runs and only six RBIs.
	 
Since then, Lee has managed to wake his bat up to the tune of 10 HRs and 30 RBI, making him not only the Astros’ most productive offensive player, but also one of the hottest outfielders in baseball over that span.
	 
Unfortunately, Lee is still hitting .226, well off the mark of his career .289 batting average. In addition to that, Lee is not stealing many bases, likely due to his putrid .263 OBP.
	 
Lee can still turn the average around, much like he has with the HR and RBI production, but until he starts to get on base a little more and bump up his BA, it’s feast or famine with the ‘Stros outfielder.
	 
Moving on to the other Carlos, Carlos Pena, we see the same type of trend.
	 
Carlos Pena had one of the worst month’s I have ever seen this past May. The Rays’ first basemen, and AL leader in HRs last year (tied with the equally as disappointing Mark Teixeira), only managed to hit three long balls in the entire month while watching his average plummet to .175.
	 
Now there will be those who will argue that Pena has never been on to hit for average, but the problem with Pena is that even while his average was never anything to write home about, he was still hitting a ton of HRs and driving in enough runs to hide a career .244 BA.
	 
Heading into June, Pena only had 8 HRs and 31 RBIs, not awful, unless you’re hitting under the Mendoza line.
	 
Pena then turned it all around with one of the best weeks in the history of baseball, hitting seven home runs in five games from June 6-12. Pena also drove in nine runs and hit .450 over that span.
	 
Pena is still not hitting for average, and at .195 will hurt your team if you play roto, but if he can continue to produce the way he has been over the past month, it makes him much less of a burden to carry throughout the summer.
	 
***
	 
In what I would like to call “the season of the rookie”, the Pirates have called up Pedro Alvarez who hit .277 with 13 HRs and 53 RBI in 66 games with AAA Indianapolis.
	 
Alvarez joins Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Mike Stanton and Mike Leake as young players who can potentially have a major fantasy impact this season

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Never too early for fantasy football drafts

June 15, 2010 , ι By DREW LOFTIS

Not interested in the World Cup? Grown tired of the NBA playoffs? Is your fantasy baseball team already falling out of the hunt? Fear not, for fantasy football is back. Yahoo! Opened its... Read on

Not interested in the World Cup? Grown tired of the NBA playoffs? Is your fantasy baseball team already falling out of the hunt?
	 
Fear not, for fantasy football is back.
	 
Yahoo! Opened its registration this week, meaning you can now schedule fantasy football drafts. ESPN’s fantasy football is set to open next week. Fox Sports kicks off July 1. And so on and so on.
	 
Of course, the Tracker can’t sit by idly as fantasy drafts are conducted, so we already have two teams at Yahoo! Here’s a early look of what to expect, albeit with very limited data:
	 
Hurray for CJ
	 
Chris Johnsonlikely will be the No. 1 overall pick. It is early, and his contract dispute, if it lingers into training camp, could push him farther down the list. But if you play in a league that awards bonus points for long TDs, he is definitely the way to go at No. 1.
	 
No Warner warning
	 
The retirement of Cardinals QB
	 Kurt Warnerhas diminished the value of WR
	 Larry Fitzgerald. Despite the fact Fitz no longer shares the field with WR
	 Anquan Boldin, now in Baltimore, fantasy owners are scared of QBs
	 Matt Leinartand
	 Derek Anderson. Instead, Texans WR
	 Andre Johnsonis filling the spot occupied by Fitz in last year’s fantasy drafts — No. 7-8 overall. This is a bit too high for Johnson. But if you can get Fitz to start Round 2, consider yourself lucky.
	 
Green-er pastures
	 
Fantasy owners have a strong opinion about which Jets running back will be most productive, and it isn’t
	 LaDainian Tomlinson. RB
	 Shonn Greenwent in the second round. LT went in the 10th in one draft and the 12th in the other.
	 
Rookie Charge
	 
San Diego RB
	 Ryan Mathewsis the highest rookie in the draft, going in the middle of the second round in both drafts. The Tracker thinks this is way to high for an unproven runner on a team that prefers to throw. Plus,
	 Darren Sprolesis still around to steal some carries.
	 
Overstocked RBs
	 
We were shocked how long some second- and third-tier RBs last. The Tracker took
	 Ahmad Bradshawin the ninth round in one league.
	 Pierre Thomaslasted until the seventh.
	 Ricky Williamsand
	 Jahvid Bestwent in the ninth.
	 C.J. Spiller, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, Marion Barberand LT, among others, went even later. We don’t expect such a deep pool this late in most drafts, but it does suggest a depth at RB that allows owners to address other needs in the early rounds.
	 
Prime position
	 
Normally, the Tracker prefers a late-first round position in snaking drafts. However, thus far, a pick in the top three or four is preferred. After Johnson,
	 Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drewand
	 Ray Rice, the Tracker isn’t a fan of the first-round values (
	 Frank Gore, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Drew Brees, Andre Johnson). Also, the talent at the top of the second round is not much better than that at the end of the second — Fitzgerald,
	 Calvin Johnsonor
	 Reggie Waynelate in the second is better value than
	 Randy Mossearly in the second.
	 
dloftis@nypost.com

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About the Authors

DREW LOFTIS Drew Loftis began covering fantasy sports for the Post in 2004. The UNC-Charlotte graduate won several North Carolina Press Association awards, including sports reporting and sports columns.

ANTHONY SULLA-HEFFINGER Anthony Sulla-Heffinger attends Fordham University and is an avid sports fan. Anthony is involved in nearly all fantasy sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball. He is riding a four-year streak in which he has won three fantasy football titles and one fantasy hockey championship.